| Emerging Health Threats Journal 2009, 2:e11. doi:
10.3134/ehtj.09.011
© 2009 Alessandro Vespignani et al.; licensee Emerging Health Threats Journal. | | ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE | | Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere | | Paulo Bajardi1, 2, Chiara Poletto1, Duygu Balcan3, 4, Hao Hu3, 4, 5, Bruno Goncalves3, 4, Jose Ramasco1, Daniela Paolotti1, Nicola Perra3, 6, 7, Michele Tizzoni1, 8, Wouter Van den Broeck1, Vittoria Colizza1 and Alessandro Vespignani3, 4, 9 | | 1.
| Computational Epidemiology Laboratory, Institute for Scientific Interchange, Turin, Italy. | | | 2.
| Centre de Physique Théorique, Université d'Aix-Marseille, Marseille, France. | | | 3.
| Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research, School of Informatics and Computing, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA. | | | 4.
| Pervasive Technology Institute, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA. | | | 5.
| Department of Physics, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA. | | | 6.
| Department of Physics, University of Cagliari, Caligari, Italy. | | | 7.
| Linkalab, Caligari, Italy. | | | 8.
| Scuola di Dottorato, Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy. | | | 9.
| Lagrange Laboratory, Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Turin, Italy. | |
| Correspondence
Alessandro Vespignani, Indiana University - School of Informatics and Computing, 919 East 10th St., Bloomington, Indiana 47408, USA.
E-mail: alexv@indiana.edu | | Received | | 29 September 2009 | | Revised | | 21 October 2009 | | Accepted | | 02 November 2009 |
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Abstract
The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several studies point to the possibility of an anticipated pandemic peak that could undermine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Here we use a structured global epidemic and mobility metapopulation model to assess the effectiveness of massive vaccination campaigns for the Fall/Winter 2009. Mitigation effects are explored depending on the interplay between the predicted pandemic evolution and the expected delivery of vaccines. The model is calibrated using recent estimates on the transmissibility of the new A(H1N1) influenza. Results show that if additional intervention strategies were not used to delay the time of pandemic peak, vaccination may not be able to considerably reduce the cumulative number of cases, even when the mass vaccination campaign is started as early as mid-October. Prioritized vaccination would be crucial in slowing down the pandemic evolution and reducing its burden. |
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